Car sales are down. Back to the future: what will happen to used car prices

Yesterday, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association published another not joyful in the period from January to July 2016. As international analysts predicted, our car market continued its protracted decline. The result is not comforting. For 7 months of this year, sales of new vehicles decreased by 14.4 percent compared to the same period last year. Even more disappointing statistics can be seen from the results of the July month of this year, in which sales of new cars fell by 16.6 percent. But people are already accustomed to such falling statistics, and this information is unlikely to surprise anyone. The thing is that we are all used to seeing how it shrinks every month. And what if you look at the statistics of car sales in a three-year period. Let's find out in more detail how much our automotive market and also analyze its chances for recovery.

First, let's look back at 2013, which has already begun to show a slowdown in new car sales. That is, even then the market began to decline, despite the fact that our country was still far from the economic crisis. But judging by the 5% drop in 2013, he was the first to react to the slowdown in the country's GDP. And this is taking into account the fact that oil prices on world markets were still high, and our country received super profits from the sale of black gold. Nevertheless, due to structural problems in the Government and the Russian economy, the slowdown in GDP inevitably affected the decline in household incomes. As a result, the automotive market was the first in the country to feel the drop in demand for new cars. But then no one reacted to the decline in sales, since 2012 was a record year for Russia in sales of new vehicles. As a result, most analysts believed that the slowdown in new car sales in 2013 was due to a temporary saturation of demand.

But today, looking back, everyone already understands that it was 2013 that became the birth of a long-term falling trend in the car market, which has no end to this day. Although experts and analysts believe that this year the Russian car market has a real chance to stop falling. It is quite possible that our market will indeed be able to stabilize for the first time in several years. There are prerequisites for this. Nevertheless, the situation in the country's economy remains unstable, and therefore forecasting the results of the year at the moment is not a thankful task.

The fact that our car market has seriously fallen, no one doubts. But few people think about how sales have fallen over the past three years. To do this, you need to clearly see how sales have fallen. vehicles. Let's take a look at the table we have prepared for you. This analytics clearly shows how strongly our automotive market has developed:

New car sales statistics from July 2013 to July 2016

MARK	JULY			JANUARY - JULY
	2016	2013	Dynamics in %	2016	2013	Dynamics in %
Lada	21754	37549	-42,07	146107	264278	-44,71
KIA	11841	17099	-30,75	81607	111969	-27,12
Hyundai	10802	14755	-26,79	75136	104221	-27,91
Renault	9132	18013	-49,30	61173	122646	-50,12
Toyota	7144	14599	-51,07	51381	87653	-41,38
vw	5839	13303	-56,11	39463	90583	-56,43
Nissan	4765	11605	-58,94	41089	75352	-45,47
Skoda	4670	6805	-31,37	31560	49652	-36,44
GAZ kom.avt.	4115	7245	-43,20	28865	45425	-36,46
Ford	3306	9293	-64,42	23984	60416	-60,30
UAZ	3290	4158	-20,88	24600	29141	-15,58
mercedes benz	2952	3835	-23,02	22093	23865	-7,43
Chevrolet	2577	15487	-83,36	17360	95687	-81,86
bmw	2100	3515	-40,26	16261	22789	-28,65
Mazda	1854	3300	-43,82	11001	23442	-53,07
Audi	1700	2954	-42,45	12832	21135	-39,29
Lexus	1665	1298	28,27	12752	8774	45,34
Lifan	1387	2603	-46,72	8952	14083	-36,43
Mitsubishi	1358	6087	-77,69	10067	43662	-76,94
Datsun**	1303	0		9532
Land Rover	573	1715	-66,59	5312	11307	-53,02
VW com.auth.	456	1312	-65,24	3109	9010	-65,49
Chery	437	1853	-76,42	3110	11525	-73,02
Volvo	430	1021	-57,88	2924	8407	-65,22
Mercedes-Benz com.aut.	372	411	-9,49	3103	2416	28,44
Subaru	359	1304	-72,47	2989	9929	-69,90
Porsche	358	299	19,73	2719	2163	25,71
Infiniti	342	625	-45,28	2613	5051	-48,27
Citroen	263	2925	-91,01	2390	16772	-85,75
Suzuki	257	2551	-89,93	3140	16372	-80,82
Peugeot	248	2907	-91,47	2118	20464	-89,65
Geely	242	2773	-91,27	3350	14474	-76,86
Ravon**	237			237
Jaguar	220	175	25,71	941	938	0,32
FIAT	129	678	-80,97	1361	4181	-67,45
Cadillac	125	114	9,65	724	909	-20,35
MINI	120	234	-48,72	743	1584	-53,09
Honda	119	2246	-94,70	838	14520	-94,23
smart	96	26	269,23	231	108	113,89
DFM**	88			696
Jeep	85	411	-79,32	691	2413	-71,36
FAW	77	461	-83,30	577	2329	-75,23
Brilliance**	60			706
Isuzu	40	20	100,00	288	73	294,52
Zotye**	36			110
Iveco**	29			345
ssangyong	19	3651	-99,48	1039	19516	-94,68
BAW	15	134	-88,81	108	1017	-89,38
Alfa Romeo**	12			65
Changan**	9			316
Chrysler	3	21	-85,71	19	114	-83,33
Foton	0	0		27	6	350,00
Haima*	0	37	-100,00	114	136	-16,18
Daewoo*		3908		8574	31182	-72,50
Opel*	0	6551	-100,00	0	46144	-100,00
Great Wall*	0	1708	-100,00	0	12122	-100,00
Total	109410	233574	-45,60	781442	1559955	-32,60

* - The brand left the Russian market / No sales recorded

** - The brand was not officially introduced to the Russian market in 2013

As can be seen from the three-year statistics of sales of new cars in Russia, the situation in the car market of our country leaves much to be desired. So from July 2013 to July 2016, the Russian car market fell by 45.60 percent, decreasing from sales of 233,574 cars to 109,410 units.

If we compare 7 months of 2013 with the same period of 2016, the market for new cars has decreased from 1,559,955 units. cars to 781,442 units, falling in percentage terms by 32.6 percent.

In general, the table shows that almost all car brands officially represented on the Russian market faced a drop in sales.

True, not all car companies record depressing sales statistics. So such brands as, and over the past 3 years have increased sales. Particularly surprising are Lexus sales, which grew 28.27 percent in three years, when sales of the related Toyota brand over the same period decreased by 51.07 percent.

But apparently, the growth in sales of individual car brands is associated with an increase in demand for expensive exclusive cars. For example, Porsche company also reported an increase in sales in the period from 07.2013 to 07.2016 by 19.73 percent. But what struck me the most Jaguar, which managed to increase sales in the Russian car market by 25.71 percent during the crisis years.

In addition, it should be noted that over a three-year crisis period a number of car brands left the Russian car market, which in 2013 showed not bad sales. For example, what is the cost of leaving the market brands Chevrolet and Opel, which had a good market share before the crisis. But for economic (or perhaps political) reasons, these brands left the market.

Unfortunately, the departure from the market of car brands that previously had a good lineup and, accordingly, acceptable sales of new cars, was not replaced by new ones. automobile companies. The emergence of the Alfa-Romeo brand and a number of others automotive brands, did not affect the balance of power and market shares.

Decline in new car sales from 2013 to 2016

(dynamics of falling sales by models)

№	MODEL	MARK	January- July 2016	January- July 2013	Change (%)	July 2016	July 2013	Change (%)
1	Granta	Lada	50301	98783	-49,08	6334	14542	-56,44
2	Solaris	Hyundai	53834	66493	-19,04	7904	9484	-16,66
3	New Rio	KIA	47086	51887	-9,25	7632	7651	-0,25
4	Duster	Renault	26400	48058	-45,07	3094	7348	-57,89
5	Polo	vw	25494	41720	-38,89	4135	7000	-40,93
6	Kalina	Lada	12476	40870	-69,47	1885	3789	-50,25
7	Focus*	Ford*		39913			5749
8	Priora	Lada	9702	36767	-73,61	1398	4882	-71,36
9	Cruze**	Chevrolet**		31296			6644
10	Logan	Renault	16331	30180	-45,89	2501	4289	-41,69
11	Niva	Chevrolet	17085	29816	-42,70	2545	3961	-35,75
12	Largus	Lada	17061	29569	-42,30	2514	4867	-48,35
13	Sandero	Renault	15552	26044	-40,29	2054	3806	-46,03
14	Octavia A5 (A7)	Skoda	12471	25770	-51,61	1880	3021	-37,77
15	4x4	Lada	15102	25320	-40,36	2035	3431	-40,69
16	Samara*	Lada*		23845			4954
17	RAV4	Toyota	18348	23389	-21,55	2181	3474	-37,22
18	Astra**	Opel**		22532			3783
19	Camry	Toyota	16042	20464	-21,61	2864	4207	-31,92
20	Qashqai	Nissan	10515	19388	-45,77	1337	3242	-58,76
21	Sportage	KIA	10011	19030	-47,39	1376	2675	-48,56
22	New Cee'd	KIA	9510	18735	-49,24		2955
23	ix35 (Tucson)	Hyundai	1129	18063	-93,75		2859
24	Nexia**	Daewoo**		17622			2106
25	Tiguan*	VW*		16073			1851

Data European Automobile Manufacturers Association (aerobus.ru)

* - The car was not included in the statistics due to the absence in the Top 25 best-selling cars

** - The model in the presented period was not officially presented on the Russian market

In contrast to the situation with the statistics of sales of new cars (by brand) for the last 3 years, the situation with statistics by model looks even worse. Above you can see a table that includes the Top 25 best-selling cars in Russia in July 2013 (and for 7 months of 2013) and in July 2016 (and also for 7 months of 2016).

From the statistics you can see that the drop in sales of the most popular models in the Russian car market looks deeper than the overall drop in sales for each company separately.

That is, due to serious economic problems in Russia, the automotive market fell primarily due to the previously best-selling cars. Unfortunately main blow falling demand for new cars touched domestic cars. Here, of course, the rise in prices for products, the decrease in public interest in Russian brands towards cars foreign brands, and of course the growth interest rates for car loans. The fact is that in 2013 the share of cars bought in was approximately 70-75 percent. As you can see, in the pre-crisis years, car loans provided the lion's share of new car sales in Russia.

Sales of new cars in Russia fell by 4.1% in February. Almost the same dynamics was recorded a month earlier. At the same time, some brands, including market leaders, were able to improve their positions compared to last year. Experts say that in the coming months fundamental change the situation is not worth waiting for, but sales should go up in the second half of the year.

In February 2017, 106,658 new cars and light vehicles were sold in Russia. commercial vehicles. According to the Committee of the Automobile Manufacturers Association European business(AEB), this is 4.1% less than in February last year. In total, a little more than 184.5 thousand cars have been sold in Russia since the beginning of the year.

Thus, after a 5% decline in January, the market, although it slightly reduced the rate of decline, still cannot turn into growth. Stabilization exchange rate and a tangible strengthening of the ruble so far have no effect on the situation - auto companies continue to raise prices, trying to compensate for losses from the collapse at the end of 2014. At the same time, the sales situation for different brands develops in completely different ways - someone has a noticeable increase, while someone has a sharp decline.

“We are seeing a very mixed brand-to-brand sales trend this month, which ended up not being enough to turn the market upside as some of the traditional leaders contributed less than in the same period last year. Possible reasons for this are varied, but it can be assumed that they are temporary. This assumption improves the market outlook for the coming months,” commented the head of the AEB Committee, Joerg Schreiber, commenting on the sales results.

Lada retains its leadership in the market by a wide margin. In February, AvtoVAZ sold 20,003 cars, which is 5% more than in the same period a year earlier. The South Korean brand Kia lagged far behind it - 12,390 cars (+8%). More recently, Hyundai, the mother Kia, but sales of this brand have slowed down recently. As a result of February, Hyundai sank by 11% and with a result of 9391 the car fell to the fourth place in the ranking of the best-selling brands in Russia. Broke out on the third French stamp Renault - 9626 vehicles (+9%).

Volkswagen - 6361 vehicles (+18%), Toyota - 6346 vehicles (-20%), Nissan - 5300 vehicles (-28%), Skoda - 4262 vehicles (+5%), UAZ - 3507 vehicles ( +13%) and commercial vehicles production of GAZ - 3407 copies with an increase of 4%.

Seriously sank in February premium brands: Mercedes (-22%), BMW (-13%), Audi (-23%), Land Rover (-19%), Porsche (-41%). However, it is too early to talk about the trend here, because a number of brands managed to add, and quite seriously: Jaguar (+210%), Infiniti (+51%), Lexus (+24%).

Moreover, the demand for Chinese cars- sales of some brands sank more than 10 times.

Among specific models the products of AvtoVAZ, which has two cars of the same popularity - Granta (4624 cars) and Vesta (4088), have noticeably overtaken the main bestseller brands Kia- Rio. In February, 5693 people became the owners of this car. In fourth place is the recently updated Hyundai Solaris- 2886 cars, closes the top five Hyundai Creta- 2565 cars. Noticeable lag Hyundai models can be explained by the marketing decision of the company. With a recent market launch compact crossover Creta Koreans refused to release the Solaris hatchback, while Kia, as before, produces Rio in two body styles.

Among other models from the top 10, one can single out a noticeable increase in demand for Skoda Rapid And Chevrolet Niva and a significant decline in sales Renault Duster.

“I would not draw any serious conclusions from a fall of 4%. The fact is that January and February are not very significant months, at this time the demand is weakened, so any one-time factors can cause a significant deviation both in one direction and in the other. There is no clear dynamics in terms of brands, - says Vladimir Bespalov, an analyst at VTB Capital. - I think that this year the market will still grow by 5-6%, but this will happen closer to the second half of the year. The trend of March-April should be the most indicative”.

Answering the question about the multidirectional dynamics of many brands, the expert found it difficult to give an unambiguous answer. “There could be many factors. For example, at the beginning of the year, companies often run promotions that increase demand. Some companies held such promotions this year, some - in the past, that's the difference. Influences and update model range. Hyundai, for example, is declining demand for Solaris due to the fact that they launched Creta. But to say that this is a stable trend is impossible.”

According to Bespalov, the consistent decline in demand for new cars in Russia is understandable, but there is a factor that can improve the situation. “People have been buying cars less for the past four years. Many have gone to secondary market. First of all, this is due to a decrease in consumer demand, with such trends in the economy, people are trying to save on goods. durable, says the expert. - But there is also a support factor that should play this year. The fact is that in 2012 there was a peak in sales, and the average tenure of a car is about five years, so I think that the market will be supported by updating my cars.”

“The drop in car sales in Russia in January-February 2017 is due to the lack of support by automakers for sales of 2017 models,” Alexei Potapov, director of the sales department at AvtoSpetsCentre, told Gazeta.Ru. - In March, the situation changed - most automakers have already launched bonus programs aimed at attracting buyers. At the same time, it is too early to say that the car market has already begun or will begin to recover sharply, but it can be noted that the decline in sales is slowing down, fluctuations are within reasonable limits. We forecast the growth of the Russian car market by 5-7% in 2017. Growth in sales can be expected no earlier than the third quarter, but in the meantime, there is a reduction in the decline in sales, which is already generally not bad.

MOSCOW, October 11 — RIA Novosti, Alexei Zakharov. In September, Russians bought new cars and light commercial vehicles a little more willingly than a month earlier. Deliveries fell 11% in the past month from an 18% drop in August, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) Automobile Manufacturers Committee said. The market is supported by rumors about the possible termination of state sales support programs. In just 9 months, the market crossed the mark of 1 million new cars sold, with a drop of 14.4% compared to the same indicator in 2015. What will happen to the automotive market - in the material RIA Novosti.

AvtoVAZ, UAZ and GAZ are increasing their share

Still like: choosing a used foreign car for 100 thousand rublesDo you have 100 thousand rubles and want to buy a foreign car? It's possible! But the choice is not wide: mostly used cars aged about 10 years. There are also more recent copies, but if you want a more serious brand, you will have to come to terms with age. Let's try to find the best option.

Sales volumes of new Ladas increased by 5% in September. AvtoVAZ dealers were able to sell almost 23,000 vehicles. More than half of the deliveries were for the Granta and Vesta models. Lada Granta even managed to stay in the top three most popular models in September and for 9 months of 2016. The share of AvtoVAZ in the Russian market last month reached 18.2%, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than in September last year.

Some AvtoVAZ customers decided to take advantage of the opportunities government programs against the background of rumors about their completion at the end of the year, which spurred demand for new Lada, said AvtoVAZ Vice President for External Communications Raf Shakirov.

"Many buyers amid information about the possible cancellation of some programs state support car market rushed to update their fleet - and rightly so. I'm going to do it myself. Now I go to work Lada XRay, but I think I will buy the same personal or Lada Vesta. Let's see. Half of AvtoVAZ's sales are made with the participation of the state market support program," Shakirov told RIA Novosti.

He also notes that the choice Lada buyers influenced the car show in Moscow, where the plant showed the cars of the current and future lineup.

For example, the most affordable Lada Granta is offered by a dealer at a price of 383.9 thousand rubles, but when you return an old car against the cost of a new one (trade-in), the price for new model AvtoVAZ may decrease by 40,000 rubles.

Cheap and cheerful: available cars with "automatic"Nissan plans to bring a sedan to the Russian market Datsun on Do, based on Lada models Granta, from Japanese automatic transmission Jatco. RIA Novosti reminds of those brands of new cars that are basic configuration cost up to 800 thousand rubles and are equipped with an automatic transmission.

Sales of new SUV UAZ also rose in September. Dealers issued 4.2 thousand cars, up 2% more cars than a year earlier. The share of products of the Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant in the total sales of the Russian car market grew by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.4%. The main interest of buyers is UAZ Patriot- almost 1.4 thousand people became its new owners. The price of the model starts from 779 thousand rubles, but with trade-in car will cost 120 thousand rubles cheaper.

In September, GAZ Group also felt the positive impact of state programs. Sales of light commercial vehicles rose 2% to 4.9 thousand last month.

Foreign cars drove off in different directions

Do it slowly: the slowest cars in RussiaNew car buyers don't always pay attention to acceleration times vehicle up to 100 km per hour. RIA Novosti has compiled a rating of the slowest accelerating cars on the Russian market - some of them gain "hundred" more than 20 seconds. The list includes models from among the most popular new cars on the Russian market.

Another model from Hyundai was able to move up a few steps. Crossover Creta from St. Petersburg, according to the company, were purchased in September by more than 5 thousand people. Top ten more Volkswagen Polo, Lada Vesta and 4x4, Renault Duster, Toyota Camry and RAV4.

The best positive dynamics in September at Jaguar - sales jumped 2 times to 211 units due to interest in the F-Pace crossover.

The leaders in terms of sales growth are also Cadillac (+61%), Lexus (+51%), Subaru (+37%), Toyota (+18%) and Lifan (+12%) brands. The deliveries of BMW (+6%), Skoda (+5%), smart (+5%), Volkswagen (+3%) and Mercedes-Benz (+1%) grew at a slightly slower pace.

Demand collapsed last month for new cars Suzuki (-63%), Citroen (-54%), Mitsubishi and Fiat (2 times), Datsun (-41%), Peugeot (-41%), Audi (-39% ).

Deliveries of Ford (-27%), Land Rover (-26%), Jeep (-26%), Chery (-24%), Mazda (-22%), Kia (-17%), Volvo (- 17%) and Infiniti (-15%). The general sales of Hyundai (-6%), Mini (-2%) and Nissan (-1%) slowed down slightly.

What's next?

I'll be back: why car brands are returning to RussiaThe Russian car market has been in a fever for several months now. Some auto companies first leave Russia, but after a few months they return. So did and Korean SsangYong Motor, - notes Alexey Zakharov.

They explain the slowdown in the rate of decline compared to last year with government programs to support the market, including programs for updating the fleet, preferential leasing and concessional lending.

The leaders in terms of sales in 2016, as before, will be Lada, and for the title of the best foreign car brand in Russia, Kia and Hyundai will compete, followed by Renault and Toyota.

Automakers predict a short-term increase in demand for new cars amid rumors about the end of state support programs.

“The pace of sales in the remaining months of the year will depend on whether buyers believe in the continuation of state sales support programs. Those who assume that their end is near may speed up the purchase decision. If the majority thinks so, then the demand for new cars may grow for a short time," says the head of the Russian office Mazda Motor Joerg Schreiber, who also chairs the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee.

Ride: how to deceive in car dealershipsThe pursuit of a cheap car sometimes ends up in a car dealership that uses fraudulent schemes. Not official dealers either they do not immediately disclose all the terms of the transaction, or they simply replace documents. A buyer who tried to save money may lose all his savings altogether.

Other experts are not so optimistic and pay attention to a number of other negative factors that put pressure on new car sales in Russia.

"An economy in recession, inflation, and a decline in real incomes of the population lead to a significant drop in demand. Russians have moved from a consumption economy to a savings economy," Avtostat experts note.

With rising prices for new cars in last years many buyers preferred to go to the secondary market, where you can find a car for any pocket. As a result, this segment turned out to be quite resistant to the crisis: sales of used cars showed a drop only in 2015, and since then the demand for them has been steadily increasing. However, the pace of this growth is much lower than in the new car market, where it has been measured in double digits since last year. So, in 2017, Russians bought 5.3 million used cars - only 2.1% more than a year earlier. And although in quantitative terms the secondary car market is more than three times larger than the primary one, it can be stated that some consumers today are returning to their dream of buying new car. Therefore, sales of used cars, although they will continue to grow, but at a more moderate pace.

“Used cars are still much more popular among Russians than new ones. However, there are also factors hindering sales of used cars: it started in the primary market, the supply of fresh cars under the age of 3 years has decreased - many motorists have increased the terms of car ownership, ”comments Sergey Litvinenko, head of Avito Auto.

In turn, Denis Eremenko, director of the PodborAvto company, notes that the return of consumers to the segment of new cars, in particular, is associated with good discounts trade-in programs that dealers have been actively developing recently. In general, the dynamics of demand in the secondary market is within the limits of statistical error, and there is no need to talk about any growth today.

Law of communicating vessels

According to the basic forecast of the AUTOSTAT agency, in 2018 the secondary housing will grow by 3.2%, to 5.47 million cars. In a year, the used car market will add another 1.5% and reach 5.5 million units. The growth rate will continue to slow down, and in 2020 the sale of second-hand cars will amount to 5.6 million units. Thus, after five years of recovery, the second-hand segment will not be able to reach the pre-crisis level of 6.1 million cars. According to a study by Avtostat, the formed pent-up demand, as well as the inevitable increase in the fleet, create prerequisites for the growth of the secondary market in the coming years. At the same time, the continuing rise in the cost of living in the absence of growth in real incomes may force Russians to indefinite term postpone expensive purchases, which include a car. This will lead to an increase in the period of car ownership and, as a result, a decrease in sales of used cars.

Rolf Group also predicts the growth of the used car market in 2018, especially in the segment up to seven years, with which official dealers are actively working. This will be a consequence of the emerging increase in sales of new cars, because the volume of the secondary market depends not only on the size of the country's car fleet, but also on the dynamics of the sale of new cars. According to Aleksey Barinov, director of the Blue Fish used car sales division of Rolf Group of Companies, there are not so many “primary” deals on the market now, when the buyer chooses his first car. So, with the purchase of a new car, he sends the previous one to the secondary market. The number of cases where a car is sold and nothing is bought in return is expected to decrease - in the midst of a downturn in the economy, such sales were not uncommon.

However, with the completion of state support programs and a possible increase in prices due to the next indexation, the new car market is waiting for a decrease in demand, which in a few years will also affect the secondary market, believes CEO CarPrice Denis Dolmatov. However, a drop in used car sales is generally unlikely, but certain age segments are already in soon may go negative. “First of all, this concerns the “three-year cars”, because in 2015 sales of new cars sank significantly, which is why now a significant number of new cars will be brought to the secondary market. fewer cars at the age of three. A reduction in supply will inevitably cause prices to rise,” warns Denis Dolmatov.

The young are making their mark

Meanwhile, last year "three-year-olds" showed compared with other age segments - by 9.6%, according to the estimates of Avtostat. This is due to the fact that it was in 2014 that new cars began to grow in price, and now they are entering the secondary market. Also, price increases were recorded for cars aged two (+3.8%) and four (+5.2%) years. At the same time, old cars (10 years and older), in addition to the fact that their number on the market is increasing significantly, on the contrary, are getting cheaper (-1.3%). In general, the weighted average cost of a used car in December 2017 amounted to 561 thousand rubles, which is 1.9% less than a year earlier (572 thousand rubles). At the same time, the price reduction is primarily due to a change in the structure of the secondary car market towards older cars.

Avito Auto statistics confirm this trend: average cost for all published advertisements for the sale of cars in 2017 decreased by 9% - to 511 thousand rubles. At the same time, most actively (in 65% of cases) buyers were interested in cars older than seven years, which is primarily due to their relatively low average price - 284 thousand rubles.

According to CarPrice data, the decline average price last year it was at the level of 0.8%, which indicates the stability of the budget for the purchase of a car. “People are ready to spend no more than last year - around half a million rubles. This amount is comfortable for many, because it allows you to do without a loan. However, a slight upward price correction is quite possible. The reason may be new credit programs for buyers of used cars,” notes Denis Dolmatov. In his opinion, fresh used cars purchased in 2015 at new post-crisis prices will sell for more than they do now. But on cars that are 10 or more years old, this rise in price will not be reflected in any way, since only the condition, and not the price for which the car was once purchased new by one of the previous owners, affects the cost.

Very old

But Rolf Group predicts a gradual rise in prices in the secondary market, and it will affect cars of any age: prices for new cars continue to rise, followed by prices for used cars. “At the same time, it is logical that buyers who do not have the necessary amount to buy a new or “young” car are forced to choose from more affordable, and therefore older options,” argues Alexei Barinov.

Indeed, in the face of falling real incomes of consumers, the demand for old cars is growing every year. There are millions of people in the country who need a car, but do not have enough money for a new one, and the only alternative for them is to buy old car for 200-300 thousand rubles. Last year alone, more than 2.65 million Russians bought cars older than 10 years. As a result, the share of such cars in the secondary market for the first time exceeded 50%, the Avtostat agency states. For comparison: before 2014 it was about 40%, and in the crisis years of 2015–2016 it increased to 44–45%.

According to Anton Demkin, sales director of Avilon-Trade, this trend is primarily due to cars under the age of three years, since many car owners have increased the length of car ownership due to lack of money to change cars.

In turn, CarPrice predicts that the share of cars older than ten years will continue to grow until the price of new cars stabilizes. After all, the demand for "decades" is supported largely due to the ongoing rise in the cost of new cars, which pulls up the prices of fresh second-hand cars.

Korean breakthrough

Meanwhile, the brand structure of sales of new cars in recent years is gradually beginning to influence the balance of power in the segment of used cars. Thus, the Korean Hyundai and Kia are rushing forward, which last year were able to overtake Chevrolet and Volkswagen in sales of used cars, respectively. And if Hyundai is ahead only of Toyota and Nissan, which still maintain a significant lead, then this year Kia should bypass Ford.

Top 10 brands on the used car market, pcs. (data from Autostat)

№	brand	2017	Change, %
1.	Lada	1 442 975	-0,2
2.	Toyota	586 528	-0,6
3.	Nissan	284 587	3,1
4.	Hyundai	242 116	10,1
5.	Chevrolet	229 480	3,4
6.	Ford	207 735	2,4
7.	Kia	201 826	15,3
8.	Volkswagen	201 722	6,5
9.	Renault	175 812	9,5
10.	Mitsubishi	160 448	-1,5
Total		5 301 190	2,1

The bestsellers of these brands also improve their positions in the sales ranking: Solaris in 2017 for the first time entered the top three best-selling used foreign cars, becoming more popular than sedans such as Toyota Camry, Renault Logan and Daewoo Nexia. And Kia Rio left behind Volkswagen Passat and Mitsubishi Lancer last year. By the way, Passat is still Volkswagen's best-selling used car, but in the near future this status will be occupied by the Polo sedan, the sale of which is gaining momentum in the secondary market. Bestsellers among foreign cars with mileage remain Ford Focus And Toyota Corolla, despite the fact that their fleet has been replenished very poorly for many years.

Top 10 models on the used car market, pcs. (data from Autostat)

№	Model	2017	Change, %
1.	Lada 2114	155 503	-0,8
2.	Lada 2107	141 172	-3,2
3.	Ford Focus	132 731	2,6
4.	Lada 2110	119 413	-4,1
5.	Lada 2170	105 659	6,2
6.	Toyota Corolla	102 172	-1,7
7.	Lada 4x4	97 475	-0,9
8.	Lada 2112	88 232	-2,5
9.	Lada 2115	87 374	-0,6
10.	Hyundai Solaris	79 637	27,6

“Volkswagen Passat and Toyota Corolla sold well over the years, and were also imported from abroad already with mileage. The share of these cars in the fleet is quite large, and so far they remain bestsellers. Ford Focus also retains leadership positions, won in previous years, during the release of the second generation of the model. However, in the near future the market will be replenished with young models. budget segment B+, and soon they will come out on top in the sales structure,” comments Alexey Barinov.

According to Denis Dolmatov, the sales leaders of recent years are Hyundai Solaris and Kia Rio- it will take time to squeeze out the bestsellers of the late 2000s, but sooner or later it will happen.

PricewaterhouseCoopers, the automotive market in Russia could shrink by 35% this year. The Secret asked Sergey Udalov, executive director of the Avtostat analytical agency, to tell what the market should expect and who will win in this situation.

What's going on in the car market

Almost everyone is in a difficult situation. Car prices have risen sharply: car owners who were ready to change cars have now decided to wait another year. Sales are going on, but at a very low level - they are not used to the new prices yet. The issuance of loans has fallen to a minimum.

Brands are in a different situation. It depends on the share Russian market in the global sales of the brand, on the composition of the owners and the format of the presence in Russia. SsangYong is not leaving the market, but is likely to move from assembly to Russian plant for import. Despite the small volumes of the market, it is profitable for them to sell and assemble cars that have already been ordered. Perhaps then they will simply import, because with a small assembly volume it is completely inefficient to maintain staff, assemble cars and provide logistics.

Care General Motors- in my opinion, not only an economic, but partly a political decision. The Russian market has always been considered significant for an American corporation. Even during the crisis of 2009, Chevrolet and Opel shared 12.3% of the market. And although in 2014 GM experienced a serious drop in sales, this figure remained at the level of 8% - it's still large volume. So, if the political situation normalizes, GM may return to Russia. Although reputational losses in this case cannot be avoided.

**The car market in Russia may shrink by 35%** this year **by 50%** in 2009 the market of new cars fell, and secondary cars - by 20%

Ford has no better sales dynamics than GM, but nevertheless they are not going to leave the market. Into the past Ford crisis independently got out of financial problems, and GM used the help of the state, which once again proves the political background in leaving the market.

For Japanese Honda and Suzuki in relation to the world sales volume, the Russian market is quite small. We are rather niche brands. depending on readiness Japanese stamps put up with losses in Russia, these brands will decide whether to stay or not. They have no production in Russia.

But most European brands are ready to maintain a dealer network in Russia. They very smoothly raise prices, not trying to immediately compensate for the growth of currencies. The same BMWs say they are ready to keep today's prices for their cars, despite the fall in profits and margins. Prices for new cars are stabilizing and will decline over time, but not by much.

Photo: Aleshkovsky Mitya/TASS

How the departure of General Motors will affect the market

Chevrolet and Opel have a total of 173 dealer centers in Russia, and it is clear that this will deal a blow to them. Dealers will continue to serve chevrolet cars and Opel, but it will be more difficult for them to make money on the service - the bulk of the revenue comes from car sales. It is impossible to say unequivocally whether the price of service maintenance these brands: dealers, on the contrary, will be more free to use spare parts, because GM's stringent requirements are unlikely to apply after they leave Russia. Everything will depend on the economic situation of individual dealers, which can lower or increase the cost of service. chevrolet cars and Opel.

The vacated niche will be gladly taken apart by other market players, but the departure of Opel and Chevrolet is unlikely to affect prices in any way. Place Opel and Chevrolet will take first place Korean stamps Hyundai and Kia. Partly, Volkswagen, Toyota, Škoda. Some consumers may also switch to the Russian Lada.

Will the Russians be left without foreign cars

The situation cannot be called a full-fledged crisis. mass exodus foreign manufacturers not expected. Our market is large even with today's sales volumes, foreign companies are ready to make strategic decisions and maintain their presence in the market. Even if it falls all this year and does not rise until 2018.

Many dealers and manufacturers were prepared for today's situation thanks to the experience of 2009 when the market decline was unexpected. Large players without a serious credit burden will be stable. Regional dealers will have the hardest time, especially with brands that are experiencing a sharp drop in sales.

In recent years, most dealers have paid more attention to customer service, including after-sales. Also, many brands and dealers began to independently develop sales of used cars. The three pillars of today's automotive business are new car sales, after-sales service, and used car sales. Those who have worked seriously in this direction have a more stable situation now. Such players will be able to further develop and, perhaps, even buy someone.

Photo: Mikhail Japaridze/TASS

How will the situation affect the secondary market?

The used car market is more stable: it is also experiencing a decline, but it is much smaller. For example, in 2009 the new car market fell by 50%, while the secondary car market fell by only 20%. Here the turnover continues: someone sells their used car and buys a new one in the secondary market. IN major cities people are ready to sell and buy used cars through dealers because they are used to quality and professional service. You can already see the growth in sales for some players more than 2 times. When dealers enter the secondary market, they are willing to lower car prices as the sale of used cars becomes, to some extent, an assembly line. It is clear that in January-February the secondary market declined sharply, but prices will now equalize. The market will determine for itself a more or less adequate price for used cars.

What are the prospects for the Russian automotive industry

Now dealers and manufacturers need to use all possible methods interaction with the government and their headquarters to create a situation in the market that is understandable to consumers. It's very important role will play general state economy, political situation and possible soft lending programs. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is ready to correct agreements on industrial assembly. From the same GM, it required the production of 360,000 vehicles by 2018, which is now unrealistic, so I think that it is still possible to adjust the agreements on industrial assembly signed earlier, primarily in terms of the timing and volume of localization.

According to my estimate, under a normal situation, the volume of the Russian market is 3 million cars in year. The fall this year could be 30-50%.

Cover photo: Mikhail Japaridze/TASS