Since we do not know how much the dollar will be worth in the future, our calculations will be approximate. But despite this, you will have at least some idea of whether you can afford a new car this year or not. According to statistics, over the past five years, the situation in the car market has changed significantly. As it turned out, 70% of sales come from cars of foreign assembly, which indicates that the vehicle domestic production buyers are of little interest.
We remind you that the sanctions imposed on Russia by Italy and Germany are still in effect. And these countries are considered leaders in supplies quality cars. In this connection, the cars of these brands have already risen in price significantly, in addition, the cost of parts for these cars has also risen. Prices for cars that are brought to us from abroad have risen by 30-40 percent.
This year, the Russian Federation raised the excise duty rate by 26.5%, the same figures were in 2014. Now owners of cars with engine power from 90 to 150 hp. you have to pay 43 rubles for one horsepower. And the excise tax on cars with a return of more than 150 hp. will be 420 rubles. for each unit of power.
We practically answered the question: how much will a car cost in 2017, but first, about the factors that will affect pricing:
- The currency situation on the financial market (experts say that the foreign exchange rate will increase by seven percent. The jump is small, therefore, manufacturers will not raise prices much so as not to lose potential buyers, which have become two times smaller over the past two years, it can be assumed that the maximum cost of cars this year will rise by 4%);
- Turkish sanctions ( domestic producers KAKMAZ and AvtoVAZ vehicles use Turkish-made parts, due to the current situation, there may be interruptions in supplies, and suppliers, in order to block them, will raise the cost of the vehicle, in which case, cars in 2017 may rise in price by 7-15%);
- A new eco-standard (since last year, all cars produced must be equipped with Euro-5 engines. Developers compensate for such costs by raising the cost of their product by five percent);
- Increased rate disposal fee up to 65% (this law was recently adopted by the Government of the Russian Federation, because of this, each car has risen in price by 30,000 -40,000 rubles);
- Increasing the excise tax to 4-5% (this indicator has practically no effect on pricing).
This data will help you to guess how much cars will rise in price in 2017 in Russia. Raising the cost may have a negative impact on both domestic buyers and foreign manufacturers. Suppliers from America and Europe will suffer considerable losses, since the inhabitants of Russia are the main consumers of these products. But, in such conditions, the demand for vehicles of domestic manufacturers may rise.
Experts say that everything will remain unchanged in the market of used vehicles, and if there is an increase in the price of a vehicle, then it will not be significant. There is a possibility that some car models will fall in price, the reason is that the demand for such products has decreased. Analysts suggest that this year in the used car market, the cost will rise by ten percent.
For buyers, these are favorable rates, if the foreign exchange rate rises, it is likely that the prices of used cars will also rise. Finally, I would like to note that there will be no constancy in the Russian car market, those who have money to buy Italian or American vehicle will be able to buy it even for a "space amount". But the people who collected half their lives for a new car of their favorite brand, most likely will not be able to afford it when they find out how much the car will cost in 2017. You should not be upset, because you can buy a used car in good condition at a bargain price.
Since the beginning of 2016, new cars have risen in price by an average of 7%. The biggest increase in the price of Japanese Mazda and Toyota (up to 11%). Hyundai and Kia went up by 7-8%, Renault and Lada - by 4-5%. On Tuesday, Kommersant, citing its own sources, said that prices would increase again in early 2017. However, automakers are not in a hurry to name exact dates and figures.
TV channel "360" decided to find out from market participants what factors affect the cost of cars and whether it can change in the near future.
“Cars are now cheaper than they should be”
Since the beginning of the crisis, the dollar and the euro have almost doubled, while car prices have increased by only 20-25%. According to the source of the TV channel "360" in the market, 50% of the losses associated with changes in exchange rates are "pulled by manufacturers on their own hump." And cars in Russia are now much cheaper than they should be.
Automakers are helped by state support measures, in addition, new assistance programs are being developed. However, no one manages to do without a corrective increase in prices.
PR director Mazda Motor Rus Maria Maguire notes that many companies have assembly facilities in Russia, so some automakers have been able to neutralize their dependence on foreign exchange rates.
“The instability of the ruble affects a little less, for this we need a large manufacturer who takes this risk, so as not to immediately frighten the consumer with these prices, but sooner or later this is reflected,” Maguire told 360 TV channel.
Prices automotive market- an unpredictable thing. Much depends on the major players: for example, if the cost of cars changes Toyota, then other market participants can follow it.
“Now it’s not serious to say how the situation will change, to calculate some percentages, because December in Russia is the most profitable month in terms of sales, and no one understands what will happen next,” Maguire believes.
"The tests themselves are not cheap pleasure"
We had to spend money on the implementation new system security "ERA GLONASS". The device will record the time, date, coordinates and speed of the car in the event of an accident and immediately send the data to the database. Nissan Representative in an interview with the 360 TV channel, he noted that testing GLONASS is not a cheap pleasure. The system itself is not too expensive, but it takes a significant amount of money to certify a car.
“We, as a company operating in Russia, are engaged in certification model range, most of our models will receive this system before the end of the year. It will be one of the factors for a possible price adjustment, but it is not the main and decisive one,” said Roman Skolsky, head of the Nissan PR department.
A Mazda representative notes that everyone is ready to implement the system, so its appearance will not affect prices in any way.
AvtoVAZ reported that the company has two cars on which the system is already being installed - this is Lada Vesta And Lada XRay. The representative of the concern noted that the system is expensive, so the company cannot afford to install it on Lada Kalina, Granta and Largus without changing the retail price economic situation and market development.
"Rise in prices will exceed the rate of inflation"
Alexander Zinoviev, Director for Brands, AvtoSpetsCentre Group of Companies ( official dealer Porsche, Audi, BMW/MINI, Nissan, Mazda, Skoda, Kia and more) said the company expects prices to increase by 5-7% in early 2017. At the same time, the change in value will most affect mass, not premium brands.
"The rise in prices will exceed average level inflation in the country and is explained by the weak positions of the ruble in the market of world currencies. A number of experts predict a depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, which will also contribute to an increase in prices for imported cars", - said Zinoviev.
However, automakers are not in a hurry to make such forecasts. A Nissan spokesperson declined to provide specific numbers, noting that the price increase would not necessarily happen at the beginning of the year. It is possible that the cost of cars will rise slightly several times.
A representative of AvtoVAZ stated that "talking about pricing policy too early for 2017.” But the company, like other market participants, regularly studies the macroeconomic situation, exchange rates and "considers various scenarios for the development of the situation."
"It's one of the most standard tools"
So far, buyers have nothing to fear: automakers regularly offer customers discounts and promotions that allow them to purchase a car on favorable terms.
Leading consumer behavior consultant Arsen Dallakyan explained that price announcements are one of the standard tools to increase demand for goods. However, all buyers already know that dealers have cars from last year, which are sold at a discount.
“Therefore, here we get a double promotion: at first they scare that prices are rising, and then they offer last year's one at a discount,” the expert believes.
However, now such actions are unlikely to have a strong impact on the market. Buyers understand that the demand for cars has been declining for several years in a row, and buying a new car is simply unprofitable, so many are switching to used cars.
“These classic mechanisms of intimidating the consumer, that the price is going up - you need to buy urgently, are already working to a lesser extent, because people have learned to behave a little more far-sighted, they no longer run scared to buy something,” Dallakyan said.
According to Nikolai Grigoriev, a member of the Russian Marketing Guild, there are no grounds for an increase in sales in the automotive market yet, so car prices are unlikely to jump sharply. The cost is likely to rise in line with inflation.
“Within the limits of inflation, it is possible to somehow restore the profitability of sellers and manufacturers, but I don’t see any opportunities to increase effective demand in the economy yet, there are no signals for this,” Grigoriev said.
Alina Mukhina
Nina Pogorelova
MOSCOW, January 10 - RIA Novosti, Sergei Belousov. In January, prices for new cars traditionally crept up. AvtoVAZ, BMW and other major brands have already officially announced the rise in prices. Some brands are trying to take their last financial breath and offer discounts to customers, but the inevitable price increase will overtake them too. RIA Novosti found out how much the cost will increase personal transport in 2018.
From Lada to BMW
The Volzhsky plant avoided making changes to the price lists throughout last year, only in autumn increasing the price of almost all trim levels Vesta sedans for nine thousand rubles. However, with the beginning of 2018, it will no longer be possible to buy a Zhiguli on the cheap: on the first working day Russian automaker announced a price increase for the entire range.
In early January, almost all AvtoVAZ cars went up in price by 15,000 rubles. A little less - 10 thousand - will now have to be added for Lada Granta and Kalina, and eight thousand rubles for the Lada 4x4 SUV.
About what's in the new BMW will change the price tags on almost all of its cars, German company announced in advance - December 25, 2017. The average cost of cars of the Bavarian brand increased by 2.5 percent. Most of all added "charged" BMW crossovers X5 M and X6 M. Price lists have not changed only for X2 and X3 crossovers, as well as M5 and 6 Series GT.
On the same day about the rise in price Cadillac cars reported Russian representation General Motors. Happy new year for Cadillac models XT5 ask for 300 thousand rubles more, for Escalade - 400 thousand: their average cost increased by 6-8%.
As RIA Novosti was informed in the press service automotive group"Avilon", since 2018 Ford company raised prices for three models: Fiesta - by 17 thousand rubles, EcoSport - by 20 thousand, Ford Kuga- for 35 thousand. Brand Audi rewrote the price tags upwards for almost the entire line - the average rise in price is almost 2 percent. Most thrown on the "charged" Audi models Sport (S and RS) - their price has increased by 5-10 percent.
In the direction of increase (plus 2-3 percent) adjusted price lists brand Mercedes-Benz. As noted in Avilon, customers still have the opportunity to buy cars according to the price lists of 2017, as well as take advantage of the sales support program for cars in stock.
Those who are eyeing Jaguar products will still have time to save Land Rover: since February, the price of a new one will jump by an average of 330 thousand rubles range rover, Range model Rover Sport will rise in price by 272 thousand, and from the second half of the year, the cost of the entire model range of the British concern is expected to increase by about 5-10 percent.
From January 2, Hyundai raised prices Solaris sedans And Creta crossovers for 10 thousand rubles. According to the dealer network, before the New Year, the price list of the sedan added the same amount. Volkswagen Polo, A Tiguan crossover V Highline equipment went up by 20 thousand rubles. Avilon Group expects further increase in prices for passenger models Volkswagen by 2-3 percent.
As Alexander Zinoviev, deputy chairman of the board of the AvtoSpetsCentre group of companies, told RIA Novosti, in 2018 prices for two Volkswagen models- station wagon Passat Variant and Amarok pickup, about 7 percent.
At the end of last year joint venture"GM-AvtoVAZ" announced a rise in price of an SUV from January 1 Chevrolet Niva. All configurations added 10 thousand rubles. At the same time, immediately after the holidays, the plant announced the campaign "On the street minus 20", in which cars produced in 2017 will be sold at a discount of 20 thousand rubles. The discount will end on January 31st.
© Chevrolet
Increased by 50 thousand euros base price Bugatti Chiron- up to 2.45 million euros, excluding taxes and other payments. However, the first Russian owner he had to pay 3.5 million euros for the hypercar, and he received the car in Europe, since the Chiron is not certified for Russia (there is no Era-Glonass system). Avilon claims that if you buy this car now, you will only be able to get it in the first quarter of 2021.
Depending on the configuration and the number of options, Maserati cars have risen in price by 7-10 percent. Fiat and Jeep prices are also expected to rise.
A year earlier
According to the analytical agency "AUTOSTAT", the largest jump in prices was observed in December 2016: then new cars rose in price by an average of 2.3 percent. In January 2017, by another 0.9 percent.
Last year, AvtoVAZ rewrote the price tags for the entire model range, also on the first working day after new year holidays. Less than a week Brand Renault released new price lists, in which cars have risen in price by 10-30 thousand rubles. The Koreans did not escape this fate. Kia bestsellers Rio and Hyundai Solaris, as well as Russian-American chevrolet SUV Niva. Prices for some models were raised by Skoda, Volkswagen, Mazda. In January 2017, Toyota added 24-305 thousand rubles to the price tag of almost all models: the record then belonged to Alphard minivan. In total, from December 15, 2016 to January 15, 2017, 25 brands increased car prices in Russia.
What's next?
Experts agree that price growth will continue in 2018, despite the stable exchange rate of the ruble.
"The increase in car prices this year is inevitable due to an increase in the recycling fee, as well as general level inflation,” said Alexander Zinoviev. - First of all, this will affect models with a capacity of over 200 Horse power, so we expect a rise in prices for all brands of the premium segment."
Earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the indexation of the recycling fee will not affect cars whose production is established in Russia. These plants will be compensated for the additional load by new program state support for the automotive industry, which is allocated more than 125 billion rubles a year.
The government will help you save money new car but not all. In 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Trade plans to allocate 16 billion rubles to continue government programs incentive "First car" (gives a 10 percent discount to those who buy a car for the first time) and " family car"(10 percent discount for those who have two or more minor children). Judging by the letters from automakers participating in the programs (available to RIA Novosti), the government decided to refuse to increase the maximum cost of a car to 1.5 million rubles - the maximum price of a falling under the program of the car remained at the last year's level of 1,450,000 rubles.In addition, models produced not earlier than December 2017 in Russia and in without fail equipped with the Era-Glonass system.
In the coming year, buyers should expect another jump, despite the relative stability of the ruble. In their opinion, in winter, dealers are waiting extremely low sales, because of which they will be forced to increase the cost of cars.
One of the interlocutors of the newspaper believes that prices will rise by an average of 4-5%. At the same time, the source in one of dealer centers talks about a rise in price by 10-15%. However, he added, companies will “roll back prices” with the help of special offers and promotions.
Another reason for the upcoming price increase, experts call the introduction of an expensive ERA-GLONASS security system. The cost of installing the system on one model is estimated by sources at six million rubles. In their opinion, consumers will feel the price increase most of all. budget segment, because there even a small increase in the cost is significantly reflected in the final price.
Expert site:
Obviously, for all brands, the ideal situation will be when retail prices for cars equalize in currency terms with prices in neighboring markets. Particularly European. No one is comfortable with the topic of losing margin compared to other markets.
To understand what reserves distributors have for raising prices, you need to know what each specific brand sales situation. And - most importantly - how dealers feel.
It is unlikely that marketers of any brand today are guided by the pre-crisis level of sales - compare with it current situation it's just pointless. But the numbers of falling sales in pieces compared to the same periods of the last year (absolute or relative) do not give an objective picture. I am sure that marketers now have a huge field for work. Surely they compare the situation not only in units (the number of cars shipped to dealers and the actual number of cars handed over to customers), but, most importantly, in rubles and in euros. And in monetary terms, the situation on the market may differ. It is possible that the fall in rubles is not so big. That is, Russians spend the same amount on cars as before. There was just a huge shift in the segments. So this is a very delicate job - marketers and distributors. Dealers are reviewing their lineup and reviewing the situation literally for every model and every configuration. A possible game with financial instruments - loans, leasing, etc. - is also superimposed on these formulas.
Surely, marketers have already come to the idea (or will soon come) to cooperate with insurance companies in order to optimize insurance offers. The same CASCO now takes a very a large percentage in a general package called "buying a car". Similarly - negotiations with dealers about the cost of periodic maintenance. Although, there are even fewer reserves here, since dealers only live in this business.
Perhaps if dealers manage to take over the used car market, that is, bite off at least 15-20 percent of it, they will be able to find reserves in their own economy for tempting offers for new cars.
Dealers in general should have a serious job of optimizing the portfolio of brands presented. For example, Opel fell off a year ago. And Honda, on the contrary, did not seem to have left, but simply threw all the problems onto dealers. As a result, we are already missing some models and modifications simply because sellers do not have reserves to reduce prices. And, moreover, money for the homologation of new products. And these are very serious sums.
In general, it is clear that brands that have invested huge sums in Russian assembly, and work with Russian component suppliers. They can no longer leave the market, and they have at least some reserves to contain prices.
From the government, everyone is waiting for guarantees of stability for 15 years ahead. Then you can develop local production. And this is the only way to normal operation in the ruble market. The second thing that is expected from the authorities is financial support for recycling and partial payment of consumer loans. Here the car market is unlikely to wait for something. There won't be any money in the budget for that.
Published on 01.11.16 12:51Experts blame the cheap ruble and the expensive implementation of the ERA-GLONASS security system for everything.
Prices for cars from the new year may go up. The main reason for this on the market is the cheap ruble: even the price increase, which is sensitive for consumers over the past two years - up to 44% - has still not won back the devaluation of the national currency. Automakers are preparing for a price hike and also complain about the expensive implementation of the system intkbbee ERA-GLONASS security: for example, AvtoVAZ warned that this would increase the price of a number of budget models company, Kommersant writes.
Since the beginning of the year, prices for new cars have increased by an average of 7%, follows from internal presentation one of the automakers operating in the Russian Federation. The biggest increase in cost Japanese brands Mazda and Toyota - by 10-11%, as well as Skoda - by 10%. Ford has risen in price by about 9%. Korean Hyundai and Kia are traditionally moderate - growth by 7-8%, Nissan, Mitsubishi and VW raised prices by about 7%. Renault and Lada have the smallest dynamics - 4-5%.
The newspaper's sources expect another jump in prices from the beginning of 2017, and, despite the relatively stable ruble exchange rate, the growth will be clearly higher than inflation. The key reason for the price increase is the weak ruble.
In one of largest dealers they said that since the new year, concerns have been setting prices on average by 10-15% due to the unstable exchange rate, but companies will adjust to the market and "roll back prices with special offers, if necessary." Avtospetstsentr is preparing for a price increase of 5-7% on average. According to PwC, since 2014, the weighted average price of a new car has grown by 44% to RUB 1.4 million, while secondary market prices rose only by 13%, to 380 thousand rubles.
Consumers expecting traditional discounts at the end of the year are likely to be disappointed, the industry believes, noting that concerns are "in the red" and only those with "completely overstocked warehouses" will go for discounts.
Another reason for the rise in prices is the cost of implementing the ERA-GLONASS security system, which should come into force from the new year. It must be equipped on all vehicles with a new vehicle type approval (OTTS). But models with a valid OTTS can drive without ERA-GLONASS until the end of the approval period (about 60% of models on the market, according to one of the players). The cost of ERA-GLONASS, they say in companies, may vary even within the same brand - due to different ways installation on the model, one of the sources calls the amount of 6 million rubles. on the model. But it is difficult to determine the impact of this on the final price of the car.
