The fall in sales of new cars in Russia in 2016 was 11%. According to the Committee of Automobile Manufacturers of the Association European business(AEB), in the past year, 1.425 million cars were sold - 176 thousand less compared to 2015.
The annual figure could improve slightly due to the rush pre-New Year's demand in December. In the last month of the year Russian market 145 thousand cars were sold - only 1% less than in December 2015. However, many market participants after a successful November, when the market for the first time for a long time went into plus, expected more impressive performance.
“The almost achieved balance in sales in December compared to December of the previous year draws a line under a similar balance in the fourth quarter (-0.9% against the same period last year), comments Jörg, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee. - This good result compared to double-digit falls in the first nine months of the year. The market as a whole is still in need of a positive reversal, but is obviously in the process of finally finding a bottom.”
Almost all market leaders in terms of sales went negative at the end of the year. So, for example, Lada ended the year with a result of 266.2 thousand cars sold, which is 1% less than in 2015.
It sank by 10%, having sold 145.2 thousand cars in 12 months. Kia result turned out to be 9% lower than in 2015 - 149.5 thousand cars sold. The brand showed a decrease at the level of 3% (117.2 thousand sold). Toyota went negative by 4%, having sold 94.5 thousand cars, and Volkswagen worsened the result of 2015 by 5%, having sold 74.2 thousand cars.
There are not so many brands that managed to increase sales over the year: GAZ (55.8 thousand, + 9%), Skoda (55.3 thousand, + 1%), UAZ (48.8 thousand, + 1% ), (42.5 thousand, + 10%), Lexus (24.1 thousand, + 19%) and the Chinese brand Lifan (17.4 thousand, + 15%). Eat positive dynamics and several other companies with annual sales in the hundreds of units.
Lada models were removed from the pedestal
Thus, for the first time in the history of the Russian car market, a foreign car topped the annual sales statistics by model.
Over the past few years, the championship has been held by Lada models Kalina and Priora, then Grantra, which is now only on the second line, albeit slightly behind the competitor - 87.7 thousand units. The third place in the list of best-selling models is Kia Rio, which sold 87.6 thousand units.
Nevertheless, as the head assured Gazeta.Ru, in 2017 the auto giant intends to keep its 20% market share.
There is hope for growth in 2017
The AEB hopes that in 2017 the market has the potential to end the four-year period of decline and return to moderate growth.
“It is expected that the total market size will be equal to 1.48 million vehicles, or, in other words, 4% more than in 2016,”
- said the head of the committee.
As part of the annual press conference of the AEB Committee, Schreiber also said that the main factors that allow making positive forecasts for 2017 are rising oil prices, GDP growth and, of course, state support for the market - the continuation of well-established programs for recycling, preferential car loans and trade-in.
At the same time, according to Gazeta.Ru sources in a number of auto companies, a positive trend in sales can really be seen only if the industry continues to be supported by the state. But so far, there is no exact data on the tools that they plan to launch in.
“Last year, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade promised us a lot, but a significant part of these promises were not fulfilled,” said one of the representatives of the auto companies. - Therefore, there are a lot of questions for him and the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Yes, we are told that the level of state support will remain at the same level. But so far these are just words, on the basis of which it is difficult to plan for the future. Moreover, we are convinced that preferential car loans exhausted itself. But this tool works and has shown itself well. Why come up with something new just for the sake of just coming up with something?”
Answering a question from a Gazeta.Ru correspondent about the new demand-stimulation instruments being developed by the government, Schreiber noted that he had only heard the names of the new programs and did not know the details.
“First car” and “village car” sound great. Let's hope that the new programs will be just as effective."
he added. At the same time, Schreiber once again lamented that the agreement on industrial assembly, which provides certain benefits, expires for most automakers in 2019, and there is still no clarity on the proposed replacement for this tool.
Experts generally share the AEB forecast. “The growth of the car market in 2017 may be 5-6% - a gradual recovery will begin,” the analyst “” says to Gazeta.Ru. “After four years of falling demand, consumer sentiment should already be starting to improve.”
The general director of the agency "Avtostat" believes that the growth of the car market may be more significant. “It all depends on oil prices, this is a key factor. If it will cost around 70 rubles. per barrel, then sales may grow by 20%, but if prices start to fall, then the car market may well show no growth at all. But this is my personal forecast, and the agency’s consolidated opinion has not yet been formed.”
September begins, and consumer demand in the automotive market rises sharply again. So at the end of summer and at the beginning of autumn you should not expect any profitable promotions, discounts, sales and other offers. Demand has been holding at a high level since mid-autumn, after which it begins to gradually decline. But if you're waiting maximum benefit from the purchase, in October or November, you should not wait for it. With used cars, the situation is no better. Autumn weather makes its own adjustments to the condition of the cars, and to the mood of the sellers themselves. Dirt and slush will hide possible defects bodies, and due to the pressure of gray weather, the owners are not in the mood to bargain and drop the price just like that. Better to wait for a better time.
Best seasons to buy
And here you guessed what time of the year is best for you to buy cars. These are the winter and spring periods. Many people just love these stretches of the year. In winter, the long-awaited snow comes, the weather changes, new year holidays. Spring returns us to the warmth, but at the same time we do not have to suffer from the sultry summer heat. It is interesting that the automotive market with the advent of these seasons allows you to make a number of profitable purchases.
Winter
Experts are sure that it is in winter that the most profitable offer in the new and used car market. Judge for yourself. In December, many dealers have cars of the current model year, and soon new models will be available. To sell off the rest, prices are gradually reduced. To increase the attractiveness of such cars, dealers offer not only discounts, but also nice gifts, bonuses for customers, some free accessories and much more. But still, in December, you should not rush. You can wait a bit, take a closer look, ask the price and make a purchase in January. This is due to the fact that the peak of profitable acquisitions falls on this month. The holidays are over, so it's time to take the collected money and go for the car.
The thing is that after the holidays, the activity of buyers decreases to incredible levels. This is easily explained by the costs of the New Year, various trips, the purchase of gifts and other expenses. People are simply not ready to part with large sums to purchase a car. But those who understand the whole essence of the market go for a car in January. They work on last year's models, and nice bonuses come with the car.
The secondary market is also very favorable. The autumn lull significantly reduced the number of calls to sellers' ads. Yes, and after impressive spending during the holiday period, there is a great temptation to get a round sum for your car. The buyer himself in January can inspect the car quite carefully, since often there is no dirt at this time, the car is clean and well-groomed. In February, there is a certain risk of being left without last year's car in the cabin, or getting the most favorable discount. The main thing here is not to delay, otherwise you will have to take the car of the new model year already without any discounts. Usually in the last month of winter, all the rest of the car is sold.
Spring
March and April should be considered profitable periods for buying a car. New holidays begin, dealers offer special promotions, add free gifts to purchases. But don't expect a collapse in car prices. There will be no more discounts, because the period of the highest demand for new cars, which starts in May, is ahead. Spring can bring benefits only in its first half. If you have delayed the purchase longer than until mid-April, then leave the money in a safe place and wait for winter. Also, spring cannot be considered the optimal period for buying used cars. The increasing demand for cars also affects the secondary market. Therefore, it is absolutely not worth waiting longer than mid-April. The buyer will also be disturbed by the weather, which is accompanied by constant slush and mud.
Don't forget about currency fluctuations. If you follow the state of the economy, you can sometimes profit from the fluctuations of the ruble against the dollar. This is especially true among those in the currency. They often leave the price tag at the same level, although the ruble becomes more expensive against the dollar, or the price of the American currency itself falls. As a result, the dollar price tag becomes profitable for a number of buyers who should take advantage of this situation.
We are talking purely about the situation of the last few years. Statistics can change dramatically, and in a completely opposite direction. Therefore, you should independently monitor current trends, check prices and availability of special offers from official dealers. As soon as you see a solution that is beneficial for you, be sure to use it. But waiting months or years for car prices to drop is definitely not worth it. The trend is that the cost of cars will only increase. Therefore, sometimes it is better to buy a car now than to wait for the unknown. Who knows, maybe in a year the same car will become more expensive by several tens or hundreds of thousands of rubles. A seasonal discount will only return the price tag to the level before the increase. There is no benefit here.
Buying a new car
Now let's talk in more detail about when it is better to buy a new car. To do this, you need to decide on car dealerships and try to narrow down the potential list of cars. However, you must know what you want. Just taking a car just because of its availability is not worth it. Each car dealer in any car dealership plans its own sales. That is, there are so-called quarterly and annual plans. To fulfill them, you need to fulfill a certain sales standard. Given this, you can determine when it is better to buy a new car in the showroom. The fulfillment by the seller of the plan allows you to count on a solid premium. Therefore, each dealer is interested in realizing maximum amount machines.
Demand for new cars drops significantly by the beginning of the new year, since all last year's models automatically become older by a year. To cope with the decline in buying activity, car dealerships are starting to hold special promotions and sales. Thus, they lure people to buy cars. This is the optimal period when it is better to buy a new car in a car dealership. Moreover, the car dealer is endowed with certain powers that allow him to make a discount on the car. Therefore, it is better to discuss this issue with direct management, as they can arrange an impressive bonus for you.
The potential discount percentage largely depends on the car itself. If it's about expensive cars there are always discounts on them. The only question is the size. But on budget cars rarely throw off even small amounts, since the cars themselves are inexpensive. To save money on buying a new car, it is best to visit car dealerships at the end of the month, quarter or reporting year. Then you will almost certainly get a discount.
Such promotions are provided in the form of a reduction in the cost of the car itself in the amount of 5 - 10%, or as additional components. That is, they can give you a set of high-quality winter tires, discs or other useful and necessary equipment for a car. Since such gifts are far from cheap, and the same wheels and tires would still have to be bought, this can be seen as an extremely good deal. But even when the car is new, it is necessary to check it. The sale of last year's cars is often carried out at the expense of cars that have been on the road for a long time. open parking. This may negatively affect paintwork and body condition.
Buying used cars
When purchasing a used car, it is also important to know and understand when it is better to buy it. It has its own rules and nuances that allow you to get a good benefit from the transaction. Statistics show that the bulk of used, that is, used cars, is sold during the spring and summer. During this period, there is noticeable activity in the secondary market, because the demand is the highest. But here you should carefully consider the question of when it is better to buy a used car. Increased demand and activity of buyers lead to the fact that it is almost impossible to achieve a discount during this period. Yes, but you can study the condition of the car due to the absence of slush and dirt.
Things are quite different in autumn, and even better in winter. Not all potential buyers want to drive and see cars when it's snowing, slushy, muddy or raining outside. Buying activity in the secondary market is noticeably falling, because sellers who want to quickly sell cars are forced to discount the price.
Experienced experts suggest when it is better to buy a used car. The buyer can get the greatest benefit from a used car on a cold winter day just before the holidays. In most cases, the sale of a car at this time is associated with the desire to take a new car. And the seller wants to do it now, while special holiday offers are in effect.
Advice! There is another advantage to buying in winter. You can tell the owner not to start the engine. So you can personally observe how the ignition works in the cold. If there are no problems with starting, this proves the good technical condition of the machine.
vehicle ownership statistics
When planning to buy a car, most people initially think about how long this car will be in their operation. And here there is a special statistics that allows you to determine the important nuances:
- At present, in Russia, the average duration of owning a new car from the moment of its purchase in a car dealership is 55 months, that is, about 4.5 years. This figure applies to all cars.
- Cars domestic production keep in the garages of Russians much longer. UAZ cars have been in operation for 5.8 years, and AvtoVAZ products have been in people's possession for about 5.5 years on average. Since the previous value was indicated taking into account all cars, it becomes clear why, on average, a car owner has been operating a car for more than 4 years. Still, the share of domestic cars in Russia is huge.
- Among foreign cars, the largest long-livers are representatives of Japanese automakers. Models from Honda and Suzuki are bought for an average of 56 months, and Mitsubishi cars Russians own about 58 months.
- The most frequently passing from hand to hand machines are representatives of the premium segment. The average tenure is 3.4 years. This is due to the status of such machines. Owning an expensive foreign car for many years is not particularly prestigious, since regular fleet renewal is considered an indicator of good financial position. Nevertheless, expensive foreign cars are bought mainly not from the standpoint of a means of transportation, but for status.
Based on this data, you can roughly estimate how many people are in the hands of a used car for sale. Most people prefer to buy a car from the same owner, because it is less likely to run into hidden problems, it is easier to find out the history of the car and get a number of other useful information.
Finally, let's give a few useful tips which you may find useful in finding the best deal.
- Fiscal year. In most cases, at car dealers, it ends in March. But sometimes it is the first month of winter, that is, December. It is better to find out about this in advance if you are interested in the offers of a particular car dealership. Thus, do not miss the most advantageous period of discounts and special offers.
- Gray deals. There are situations when car dealers offer profitable, but not entirely fair deals. They are concluded only with proven and reliable sellers, or by acquaintance. Each dealer has a certain discount limit, which he can use to sell cars. The bottom line is that with normal sales figures, the manager can allocate a solid discount. But on the condition that you reward him for this with a certain amount. The scheme is gray and looks a bit like fraud, but in fact no theft or deception occurs. Everyone gets what he wants.
- Purchase in the first quarter. When cars of the new model year appear in the showroom, an active sale of old cars begins. But buying the latter will not be beneficial for everyone. It all depends on how long you are going to operate the car before resale. If you do not plan to drive a car for more than 3 years, then it is better to immediately purchase a new model year car at a higher price. This is because the resale will be based on the year of manufacture, not the year of purchase. Thus, for a newer car, you will receive a larger amount from the buyer. And if a car is purchased for 5 - 7 years, then it is really profitable to take a model of the past model year at a discount. After the same 5 - 7 years in the secondary market, the year difference will no longer play a special role.
As you understand, the cost of cars and the opportunity to get favorable discounts are directly affected by seasonal demand and car dealers' plans for the sale of vehicles. But you should not start only from dry statistics. The situation is constantly changing, some car dealerships can provide solid bonuses even in the midst of demand. Therefore, you need to carefully monitor the dynamics of the market, monitor current trends and observe changes. At some point, you will definitely be lucky, and you will be able to take the desired car for a very favorable price, or with an addition in the form of nice bonuses, accessories and equipment for a new car.
The best prices and conditions for the purchase of new cars
Loan 6.5% / Installment / Trade-in / 98% approval / Gifts in the salonMas Motors
As you know, a new car depreciates by about 10% immediately, as soon as it leaves the dealership, and continues to get cheaper with every kilometer traveled. At the same time, the rate of depreciation of the car largely depends on the dynamics of prices in the new car market. According to the CEO of GiPA Russia marketing agency Alexander Gruzdev, usually the most big loss occurs in the first year of owning a car, which is explained precisely by the loss of the “new car” status. Over the next few years, the cost reduction is slow, but after the end of the warranty, the car can fall sharply in price. An important role is played by the presentation of the car, as well as the number of accidents in which it has been and the degree of damage received in them.
“With age, any car becomes cheaper, but each car loses its price in different ways,” says Alexander Gruzdev. “Many different factors play a role here, including the image of the brand in terms of the reliability of its cars, the class to which the car belongs, its popularity in the market, the cost of maintenance and much more.”
According to a recent PwC study, B-class and compact crossovers lose value slower cars other classes - an average of less than 25% over three years. And three-year-old business class cars depreciate the most and full size SUVs over 3 million rubles - by 38% and 47% respectively.
“Traditionally, the more expensive and higher the class of a car, the lower its residual value, but there are exceptions to all rules,” says Denis Eremenko, director of PodborAvto. - For example, many Toyota models, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, even at the age of three years, can be sold almost at their original price, due to the great popularity in the secondary market and the constant increase in prices for new cars of these models. If new cars of some running models are not available from dealers, then a similar one-year-old car can cost almost like new, adds Aleksey Barinov, director of the Blue Fish used car sales division of Rolf Group.
Profitable capital investment
Analysts of "AUTOSTAT" made a rating of the most liquid models in the automobile market of our country. Comparing the cost of a new car in 2011 and the price when it was sold at the end of last year, the experts calculated the indices residual value models of more than 40 brands cars presented in various segments of the Russian car market.
| Segment | Place | brand | Model | Saving value, % |
| A | 1 | Chevrolet | Spark | 79,2 |
| A | 2 | Lifan | smiley | 78 |
| A | 3 | Citroen | C1 | 75,2 |
| B | 1 | Renault | Sandero | 90,9 |
| B | 2 | Volkswagen | Polo | 87,8 |
| B | 3 | Hyundai | Solaris | 83,8 |
| C | 1 | Toyota | Corolla | 82,9 |
| C | 2 | Volkswagen | Golf | 81,8 |
| C | 3 | Mazda | 3 | 79,5 |
| D | 1 | Volkswagen | Passat | 82,3 |
| D | 2 | Honda | Accord | 76,2 |
| D | 3 | Toyota | Camry | 75 |
| MPV | 1 | Nissan | note | 83,2 |
| MPV | 2 | Volkswagen | golf plus | 80,7 |
| MPV | 3 | Opel | Meriva | 79,4 |
| PICKUP | 1 | Toyota | Hilux | 91,2 |
| PICKUP | 2 | Mitsubishi | L200 | 90,1 |
| PICKUP | 3 | Volkswagen | Amarok | 84,6 |
| SUV (B) | 1 | Lada | 4×4 | 85,2 |
| SUV (B) | 2 | Nissan | Juke | 82,2 |
| SUV (B) | 3 | Chevrolet | Niva | 81,6 |
| SUV (C) | 1 | KIA | Sportage | 79,7 |
| SUV (C) | 2 | Mitsubishi | ASX | 78,8 |
| SUV (C) | 3 | Suzuki | Vitara/Grand Vitara | 78,1 |
| SUV (D) | 1 | Toyota | Highlander | 83,9 |
| SUV (D) | 2 | UAZ | Patriot | 75,7 |
| SUV (D) | 3 | KIA | Sorento | 74,5 |
| SUV (E) | 1 | Volkswagen | Touareg | 81,4 |
| SUV (E) | 2 | Toyota | Land cruiser | 77,5 |
| SUV (E) | 3 | Mitsubishi | pajero | 77,4 |
Source: AUTOSTAT agency
In the segment of subcompact cars, it loses the least in Chevrolet price Spark - for three years of operation, this model retains 79.2% of the original cost. Among B-class cars best score at the hatchback Renault Sandero- 90.9%. In the golf class, the leader in terms of residual value is Toyota Corolla (82.9%), and in the business class car market - Volkswagen Passat (82,3%).
“The main factor that determines the residual value of a car is the quality of the product. It is a high-quality car that meets the requirements of increased safety and comfort that is trusted by the client, - the Volkswagen press service notes. “In addition, the model’s liquidity is affected by the manufacturability of the product, as well as the variety of options offered, allowing each client to easily find the right option.”
It is curious that the highest percentage of the original cost is retained by foreign cars localized in Russia - Renault Sandero, Volkswagen Polo sedan And Hyundai Solaris. The high liquidity of its Sandero hatchback in Renault, in particular, they explain the adaptation of the model to the climatic and road conditions of operation in Russia, the reliability and durability of the car, known for its heavy-duty suspension and high ground clearance, as well as the availability of spare parts and maintenance.
As for crossovers and SUVs, which are now the most popular among Russians, the leader among compact SUVs is domestic Lada 4x4 - At three years old, this model retains 85.2% of its original price on resale. Recognized as the most liquid C-class crossover Kia Sportage(79.7%), among models mid-size SUVs is in the lead Toyota Highlander(83.9%), and in the E-SUV segment - Volkswagen Touareg (81,4%).
“The high liquidity of Lada 4x4 is due to the lack of competition not only in the primary, but also in the secondary market (Chevrolet Niva is more expensive, and UAZ is a car of a slightly different class), relatively low production volume, good maintainability and survivability of the design,” the press AvtoVAZ center. - In addition, it is necessary to take into account the classical Lada style 4x4 - the design loved by millions is carefully preserved by AVTOVAZ, thanks to which new and used cars do not have cardinal differences in appearance, although some details are periodically updated (mirrors, lighting, interior trim, rims).”
It is worth noting that in the overall standings among the mass brands, Toyota became the leader of the rating, whose Corolla, Hilux and Highlander models are recognized as the best in terms of maintaining residual value in their segments. “Toyota vehicles retain a higher residual value due to the Toyota brand's strong reputation for reliable vehicles. Due to such consumer properties as quality, reliability and durability, for a customer, a used Toyota practically does not differ from new car. This trend is reflected in the high residual value Toyota cars in the secondary market, which is confirmed by the study of "Avtostat", - state the press service of "Toyota Motor".
Premium class at an affordable price
In the premium car market, the Audi A4 (70.7%), BMW 5 Series (73.8%) and Lexus LS (70.2%) were the best in terms of residual value preservation in their segments. It has long been noticed that cars are more high class lose value faster than less expensive and prestigious cars.
“The residual value index of a car is determined more by the purchasing power of the market. Also of great importance is the fact that many premium segment models are sold with a high share of the cost of options in the total cost of a new car, while the calculation of the residual value coefficient is often carried out in relation to the cost of the model, either without options or with a small share of them in the price. car,” commented the press service of Audi, which, by the way, became the winner in the overall standings for the preservation of residual value among premium brands.
Among premium SUVs Range became leaders in their segments Rover Evoque(82.0%), Audi Q5 (79.8%) and Porsche Cayenne(75.3%). By the way, Jaguar Land Rover conducted its own residual value survey late last year, in which analysts tracked how the price of Jaguar and Land Rover models under three years of age changed each year. For example, the same Range Rover Evoque is different high rate residual value in the first year (89.14%), minimal decline in the second (81.93%) and the almost complete absence of a fall in the third (79.05%). The exception to the rule was new Range Rover Sport, which shows not a decrease, but an increase in the residual value in the second year - from 88.85 to 89.32%. The experts explain it big amount"premier" cars in the secondary market, which, in turn, undermines the price of cars of the previous generation. But the completion of sales of the Defender SUV, as expected by the company, can significantly increase the residual value of this model in Russia.
Rating of car models by residual value (premium segment)
| Segment | Place | brand | Model | Saving value, % |
| D | 1 | Audi | A4 | 70,7 |
| D | 2 | Volvo | S60 | 68,9 |
| D | 3 | mercedes benz | C class | 62,9 |
| E | 1 | bmw | 5 Series | 73,8 |
| E | 2 | Audi | A7 | 68,2 |
| E | 3 | Audi | A6 | 65,1 |
| F | 1 | Lexus | LS | 70,2 |
| F | 2 | mercedes benz | S class | 56,8 |
| F | 3 | Audi | A8 | 56,1 |
| SUV (C) | 1 | Land Rover | Range Rover Evoque | 82 |
| SUV (C) | 2 | mercedes benz | GLK class | 76,4 |
| SUV (C) | 3 | bmw | X1 | 68,9 |
| SUV (D) | 1 | Audi | Q5 | 79,8 |
| SUV (D) | 2 | bmw | X3 | 72,7 |
| SUV (D) | 3 | Lexus | RX | 71,3 |
| SUV (E) | 1 | Porsche | Cayenne | 75,3 |
| SUV (E) | 2 | Lexus | LX | 72,3 |
| SUV (E) | 3 | Lexus | GX | 70,9 |
Sales of new cars in Russia at the end of 2016 decreased by 11%. The rate of decline has tripled thanks to state support programs, economic stabilization and pent-up demand, experts say
« The final search for the bottom "
In December 2016, about 146,000 new cars and light vehicles were sold in Russia. commercial vehicles(LCV), which is 10% higher than the result of November (132.3 thousand), follows from the report of the Association of European Businesses (AEB).
But according to the results of all 2016, 1,425,791 cars were sold in Russia, which is 176,319 units, or 11%, less than a year earlier. Thus, last year became the fourth consecutive year of the fall of the Russian automotive market, although the rate of decline decreased by 3.2 times: in 2013, sales decreased by 5%, in 2014 - by 10.3%, in 2015 - by 35.7%.
Compared to "double-digit declines in the first nine months of the year," December sales are "a good result," said Jörg Schreiber, chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee, according to the association's statement. “The market as a whole still needs a positive turn, but is obviously in the process of finding a final bottom,” he added. The AEB hopes that in 2017 the Russian market "has the potential" to end the four-year period of decline and return to moderate growth. Total vehicle sales in 2017 are expected to be 1.48 million units, up 4% from 2016, Schreiber said.
Subaru and Suzuki believe that in 2017 the market can grow even a little more - by 4-5%, their representatives say. “So far, there are no prerequisites for global growth,” admits Irina Zelentsova, head of the sales and marketing department at Suzuki Motor Rus. “In 2017, we do not expect dramatic changes,” agrees Subaru Motor CEO Yoshiki Kishimoto. And Toyota believes that the market size in 2017 will remain at the level of 2016, says Natalya Astafieva, a leading specialist in public relations of the company. “The Russian automotive market remains one of the priority markets for Toyota, and we view it as a promising one,” she points out.
The relative stabilization of the car market was due to state support programs, an improvement in the economic situation and pent-up demand, Sergey Udalov, executive director of Avtostat, told RBC. The forecast of "AUTOSTAT" does not differ much from the AEB, the growth by the end of the year may be about 5%. At the same time, the car market is quite volatile, if there are sharp movements in the economy, then perhaps the market will recover faster, he adds.
One fifth of all new car sales in 2016 came from cars produced by AvtoVAZ. As follows from the company's message published on Thursday, the plant sold 266.23 thousand cars in Russia during the year, which is 1% (2.8 thousand units) less than in 2015. According to AvtoVAZ's own estimate, the share of Lada in the Russian market at the end of the year was 20%, which is 2.2 p.p. better indicators 2015. However, according to the AEB, in 2016 the group's share was 18.7%, having increased only by 1.9% p.p.
How AvtoVAZ increased its share
At the end of 2015, Lada sales decreased by 30%, while the share of AvtoVAZ was 16.8% (according to AEB) in the total volume. In early March, the plant's shareholders, the Renuat-Nissan alliance and Rostec, decided to dismiss its president, Bo Andersson, who had been heading the company since January 2014. One of the main reasons was the huge losses in 2015 - 73.9 billion rubles. Instead of cooperating with Russian component suppliers, Andersson chose to take “the easiest path,” Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov said at the time, explaining the reason for the top manager’s resignation and the company’s poor financial results. According to him, it was a "big mistake".
A month before his resignation, Andersson said that AvtoVAZ would increase its stake to 20% in 2016. The press service of the plant on Thursday said that this goal was achieved - the plant controls 20% of sales of new cars. But, according to the AEB, the share of Lada in total sales amounted to 18.7%.
After the resignation of the president of AvtoVAZ, the company was headed by Nicolas Maure, who moved from another "daughter" of the Renault-Nissan alliance - the Romanian Dacia. “Firstly, my main goal is to return the company to profitability. Secondly, strengthening the presence of Lada in the Russian market. Thirdly, it is necessary to bring the standards and methods of managing the alliance to AvtoVAZ, to attract more and more employees from AvtoVAZ to projects that are being implemented within the perimeter of the Renault-Nissan alliance, ”Mor said in an interview with Vedomosti in June 2016.
In addition, Mohr was tasked with increasing the level of localization of components that AvtoVAZ uses in its models, said Sergey Chemezov, CEO of Rostec.
The South Korean seat manufacturer Daewon is localizing the production of seat frames for Lada Vesta, which were previously imported, at the site of IzhAvto (one of the AvtoVAZ plants) in Izhevsk, Chemezov said at a briefing in December: “The task is to localize the frames as soon as possible.” According to him, the plant can increase the level of localization of new models just by actively attracting foreign suppliers to Russia, AvtoVAZ should increase the localization of Vesta and Xray by 10 percentage points, to about 50%, in three years.
Ranked second and third in 2016 Korean manufacturers Kia (149.5 thousand) and Hyundai (145.25 thousand) reduced sales by 9 and 10% respectively, follows from the AEB report. Lexus (up 19% to 24.1 thousand), Lifan (+15% to 17.46 thousand), Ford (+10% to 42.5 thousand) were also able to increase sales at the end of the year. , Skoda (+1%, up to 55.4 thousand) and UAZ (+1%, up to 48.85 thousand). And the outsiders in 2016 were SsangYong (-78%), Honda (-62%), Geely (-61%) and Mitsubishi (-53%).
Among the models, Hyundai Solaris became the main bestseller of the Russian car market in 2016, although its sales fell by more than 20% year-on-year (to 90.38 thousand units). In second place - Lada Granta(-27%, 87.72 units), in third place is Kia Rio (+9.7%, 87.66 thousand cars).
optimistic mood
Positive changes in the market in 2016 are seen by both companies that have managed to improve their results over the year, and automakers that have reduced the share of sales. The share of Kia at the end of the year amounted to 10.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, the managing director told RBC KIA Motor Rus” Alexander Moinov. The goal for 2017 is to bring this figure to 11%, he added.
Russia remains a “key strategic market” for Nissan as well, the company is implementing long-term plans to increase localization and strengthen its position, Andrei Akifiev, head of Nissan in Russia, told RBC through the press service. “The foundation we have built in Russia is strong enough, but at the same time, due to external factors, we have to adjust our course in accordance with the new conditions,” he admitted.
Volkswagen Group Rus PR Director Natalya Kostyukovich told RBC that despite the fact that the automotive market fell by 11% in 2016, the company was able to increase its market share from 10.3 to 11%. In 2016 volkswagen sold 157 thousand cars in Russia, of which 147 thousand were produced at local production sites - in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod. The volume of local production in 2016 increased by 9%, she specified.
“The results of 2016 are quite expected. Of course we wanted to sell more cars, but we have made a good start for the future. Our goal for 2017 is to increase our market share to 1% (about 0.5%), and in an optimistic scenario - up to 4%,” said Alexander Migal, Managing Director of Peugeot, Citroen and DS.
“In 2016, Subaru sales decreased by 18%, this is due to the fact that initially we planned sales based on the fact that the market would fall by 20%, so for us this is quite an expected result,” Kishimoto told RBC through the press service. Initially, in 2016, the company planned to sell 5.5 thousand cars, but in the end it sold a little more - 5.7 thousand.
Growth not in Russia
According to preliminary estimates, at the end of 2016, the volume of the global car market will amount to 90.9 million units, which is 1.7% higher than in 2015 (89.4 million units according to IHS Automotive). In contrast to the Russian car market, global sales have shown positive dynamics over the past five years.
According to focus2move data, Volkswagen became the leader of the global car market at the end of last year, having sold 10.1 million cars, which is 1.4% higher than in 2015. And Toyota dropped to second place with 9.95 million vehicles (+0.2%). Renault-Nissan Alliance, which controls the Russian AvtoVAZ, sold 8.5 million vehicles (+6.2%), Korean Hyundai and Kia - 8.17 million units (+1.9%). The top five is closed by the American General Motors— 7.97 million (+0.3%).
At the end of 2014, oil prices fell, the ruble weakened, the economy destabilized, which caused an increase in car prices, reminds Udalov from Avtostat. As a result, the Russian car market began to decline, unlike the world one, he notes.
But in 2017, experts expect a drop in sales of the global car market. Until the end of this year, only 83.6 million new cars can be sold (8% less than expected in 2016), predicts the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA).
MOSCOW, October 11 — RIA Novosti, Alexei Zakharov. In September, Russians bought new cars and light commercial vehicles a little more willingly than a month earlier. Deliveries fell 11% in the past month from an 18% drop in August, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) Automobile Manufacturers Committee said. The market is supported by rumors about the possible termination of state sales support programs. In just 9 months, the market crossed the mark of 1 million new cars sold, with a drop of 14.4% compared to the same indicator in 2015. What will happen to automotive market- in the material of RIA Novosti.
AvtoVAZ, UAZ and GAZ are increasing their share
Still like: choosing a used foreign car for 100 thousand rublesDo you have 100 thousand rubles and want to buy a foreign car? It's possible! But the choice is not wide: mostly used cars aged about 10 years. There are also more recent copies, but if you want a more serious brand, you will have to come to terms with age. Let's try to find the best option.Sales volumes of new Ladas increased by 5% in September. AvtoVAZ dealers were able to sell almost 23,000 vehicles. More than half of the deliveries were for the Granta and Vesta models. Lada Granta even managed to stay in the top three popular models in September and for 9 months of 2016. The share of AvtoVAZ in the Russian market last month reached 18.2%, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than in September last year.
Some AvtoVAZ customers decided to take advantage of the opportunities government programs against the background of rumors about their completion at the end of the year, which spurred demand for new Lada, said Raf Shakirov, vice president of AvtoVAZ for external communications.
"Many buyers amid information about the possible cancellation of some programs state support car market rushed to update their fleet - and rightly so. I'm going to do it myself. Now I go to work Lada XRay, but I think I will buy the same personal or Lada Vesta. Let's see. Half of AvtoVAZ's sales are made with the participation of the state market support program," Shakirov told RIA Novosti.
He also notes that the choice of Lada buyers was influenced by a car dealership in Moscow, where the plant showed cars of the current and future lineup.
For example, the most affordable Lada Granta is offered by a dealer at a price of 383.9 thousand rubles, but if you return an old car against the cost of a new one (trade-in), the price of a new AvtoVAZ model may decrease by 40 thousand rubles.
Sales of new UAZ SUVs also grew in September. Dealers issued 4.2 thousand vehicles, which is 2% more than a year earlier. The share of products of the Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant in the total sales of the Russian car market grew by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.4%. The main interest of buyers is UAZ Patriot- almost 1.4 thousand people became its new owners. The price of the model starts from 779 thousand rubles, but with trade-in, the car will cost 120 thousand rubles cheaper.
In September, GAZ Group also felt the positive impact of state programs. Sales of light commercial vehicles rose 2% to 4.9 thousand last month.
Foreign cars drove off in different directions
Another model from Hyundai was able to move up a few steps. Crossover Creta from St. Petersburg, according to the company, were purchased in September by more than 5 thousand people. Still in the top ten Volkswagen Polo, Lada Vesta and 4x4, Renault Duster, Toyota Camry and RAV4.
Jaguar had the best positive dynamics in September - sales jumped 2 times to 211 units due to interest in the F-Pace crossover.
The leaders in terms of sales growth are also Cadillac (+61%), Lexus (+51%), Subaru (+37%), Toyota (+18%) and Lifan (+12%) brands. The deliveries of BMW (+6%), Skoda (+5%), smart (+5%), Volkswagen (+3%) and Mercedes-Benz (+1%) grew at a slightly slower pace.
Demand collapsed last month for new cars Suzuki (-63%), Citroen (-54%), Mitsubishi and Fiat (2 times), Datsun (-41%), Peugeot (-41%), Audi (-39% ).
Deliveries of Ford (-27%), Land Rover (-26%), Jeep (-26%), Chery (-24%), Mazda (-22%), Kia (-17%), Volvo (- 17%) and Infiniti (-15%). The general sales of Hyundai (-6%), Mini (-2%) and Nissan (-1%) slowed down slightly.
What's next?
They explain the slowdown in the rate of decline compared to last year with government market support programs, among which are programs for updating the fleet, preferential leasing and preferential lending.
The leaders in terms of sales in 2016, as before, will be Lada, and for the title of the best foreign car brand in Russia, Kia and Hyundai will compete, followed by Renault and Toyota.
Automakers predict a short-term increase in demand for new cars amid rumors about the end of state support programs.
“The pace of sales in the remaining months of the year will depend on whether buyers believe in the continuation of state sales support programs. Those who assume that their end is near may speed up the purchase decision. If the majority thinks so, then the demand for new cars may grow for a short time," says the head of the Russian office Mazda Motor Joerg Schreiber, who also chairs the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee.
Ride: how to deceive in car dealershipsThe pursuit of a cheap car sometimes ends up in a car dealership that uses fraudulent schemes. Unofficial dealers either do not immediately disclose all the terms of the transaction, or simply substitute documents. A buyer who tried to save money may lose all his savings altogether.Other experts are not so optimistic and pay attention to a number of other negative factors that put pressure on new car sales in Russia.
"An economy in recession, inflation, and a decline in real incomes of the population lead to a significant drop in demand. Russians have moved from a consumption economy to a savings economy," Avtostat experts say.
